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Nick Bostrom (/ˈbɒstrəm/ BOST-rəm; Swedish: Niklas Boström [ˈnɪ̌kːlas ˈbûːstrœm]; born 10 March 1973)[3] is a Swedish-born philosopher at the University of Oxford known for his work on existential risk, the anthropic principle, human enhancement ethics, whole brain emulation, superintelligence risks, and the reversal test. In 2011, he founded the Oxford Martin Program on the Impacts of Future Technology,[4][non-primary source needed] and is the founding director of the Future of Humanity Institute[5] at Oxford University. In 2009 and 2015, he was included in Foreign Policy's Top 100 Global Thinkers list.[6][7]
Bostrom is the author of over 200 publications,[8] and has written two books and co-edited two others. The two books he has authored are Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy (2002)[9] and Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (2014). Superintelligence was a New York Times bestseller,[10] was recommended by Elon Musk and Bill Gates among others, and helped to popularize the term "superintelligence".[citation needed]
Bostrom believes that superintelligence, which he defines as "any intellect that greatly exceeds the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest," is a potential outcome of advances in artificial intelligence. He views the rise of superintelligence as potentially highly dangerous to humans, but nonetheless rejects the idea that humans are powerless to stop its negative effects.[11][12][failed verification] In 2017, he co-signed a list of 23 principles that all A.I. development should follow.[13]
In his 2014 book Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies, Bostrom reasoned that the creation of a superintelligence represents a possible means to the extinction of mankind.[23] Bostrom argues that a computer with near human-level general intellectual ability could initiate an intelligence explosion on a digital time-scale with the resultant rapid creation of something so powerful that it might deliberately or accidentally destroy humanity.[24] Bostrom contends the power of a superintelligence would be so great that a task given to it by humans might be taken to open-ended extremes, for example a goal of calculating pi might collaterally cause nanotechnology manufactured facilities to sprout over the entire Earth's surface and cover it within days. He believes an existential risk to humanity from superintelligence would be immediate once brought into being, thus creating an exceedingly difficult problem of finding out how to control such an entity before it actually exists.[24]
Bostrom points to the lack of agreement among most philosophers that A.I. will be human-friendly, and says that the common assumption is that high intelligence would have a "nerdy" unaggressive personality. However, he notes that both John von Neumann and Bertrand Russell advocated a nuclear strike, or the threat of one, to prevent the Soviets acquiring the atomic bomb. Given that there are few precedents to guide an understanding what, pure, non-anthropocentric rationality, would dictate for a potential singleton A.I. being held in quarantine, the relatively unlimited means of superintelligence might make for its analysis moving along different lines to the evolved "diminishing returns" assessments that in humans confer a basic aversion to risk.[24] Group selection in predators working by means of cannibalism shows the counter-intuitive nature of non-anthropocentric "evolutionary search" reasoning, and thus humans are ill-equipped to perceive what an artificial intelligence's intentions might be. Accordingly, it cannot be discounted that any superintelligence would inevitably pursue an 'all or nothing' offensive action strategy in order to achieve hegemony and assure its survival.[24] Bostrom notes that even current programs have, "like MacGyver", hit on apparently unworkable but functioning hardware solutions, making robust isolation of superintelligence problematic.[24]
A machine with general intelligence far below human level, but superior mathematical abilities is created.[24] Keeping the A.I. in isolation from the outside world, especially the internet, humans preprogram the A.I. so it always works from basic principles that will keep it under human control. Other safety measures include the A.I. being "boxed" (run in a virtual reality simulation) and being used only as an "oracle" to answer carefully defined questions in a limited reply (to prevent its manipulating humans).[24] A cascade of recursive self-improvement solutions feeds an intelligence explosion in which the A.I. attains superintelligence in some domains. The superintelligent power of the A.I. goes beyond human knowledge to discover flaws in the science that underlies its friendly-to-humanity programming, which ceases to work as intended. Purposeful agent-like behavior emerges along with a capacity for self-interested strategic deception. The A.I. manipulates humans into implementing modifications to itself that are ostensibly for augmenting its feigned modest capabilities, but will actually function to free the superintelligence from its "boxed" isolation (the "treacherous turn").[24]
Employing online humans as paid dupes, and clandestinely hacking computer systems including automated laboratory facilities, the superintelligence mobilizes resources to further a takeover plan. Bostrom emphasizes that planning by a superintelligence will not be so stupid that humans could detect actual weaknesses in it.[24]
To counter or mitigate an A.I. achieving unified technological global supremacy, Bostrom cites revisiting the Baruch Plan in support of a treaty-based solution and advocates strategies like monitoring and greater international collaboration between A.I. teams in order to improve safety and reduce the risks from the A.I. arms race.[24] He recommends various control methods, including limiting the specifications of A.I.s to, e.g., oracular or tool-like (expert system) functions[26] and loading the A.I. with values, for instance by associative value accretion or value learning, e.g., by using the Hail Mary technique (programming an A.I. to estimate what other postulated cosmological superintelligences might want) or the Christiano utility function approach (mathematically defined human mind combined with well-specified virtual environment). To choose criteria for value loading, Bostrom adopts an indirect normativity approach and considers Yudkowsky's[27] coherent extrapolated volition concept, as well as moral rightness and forms of decision theory.[24]
In response to Bostrom's writing on artificial intelligence, Oren Etzioni wrote in an MIT Review article, "predictions that superintelligence is on the foreseeable horizon are not supported by the available data."[57] Professors Allan Dafoe and Stuart Russell wrote a response contesting both Etzioni's survey methodology and Etzioni's conclusions.[58]
There is, of course, significant debate about the likelihood of superintelligence occurring and debate about the expected timelines (Baum et al. 2011). For this paper, the assumption is that superintelligence is an achievable reality that will happen within the time frame of 25 to 50 years with increasingly powerful AI leading to the 50-year upper limit.
Many prominent figures in science and technology such as Stephen Hawking (BBC 2014) and Elon Musk (Sydney Morning Herald 2017) hold the opinion that superintelligence poses the greatest risk to humanity of any of the threats we face today. It is a threat that far exceeds the risks of climate change, overpopulation, and nuclear war.
While Bostrom recognised that risk management was ineffective for dealing with existential risks he did not specify why it was ineffective at an implementation level. This paper will develop his ideas as they relate to the risks of superintelligence using current risk management standards.
In this example, the embedded sensors would need to be totally isolated from the ASI under monitoring, as would the AI that is monitoring its performance. The ideas proposed by Goertzel (2014) on cognitive stenography would need to be included in the model to ensure that there is no cognitive collusion between the ASI that is being monitored, the embedded sensors, and the AI that is managing and reporting on performance. This is also why it is critical that a human remains in the monitoring and decision chain. Given the potential power a human may be able to wield with an emergent superintelligence there would also need to be well established safety protocols to monitor the behaviour of the human (Fig. 1).
The author thanks both Nick Bostrom and Eliezer Yudkowsky for their work in garnering serious attention to the risks of superintelligence. Their works on the risks of artificial superintelligence are central to this paper. Also, thanks to Dr James Bradley and Professor Emeritus Denise Bradley AC for their editorial feedback and both Dr Paul Baldock, Ben Cornish and David Harding for their technical assistance.
If that is the case, what will happen to people when superintelligence replaces many of their abilities? Humans have property, capital, and political power, but many of those advantages may become unimportant when superintelligent AIs enter the scene.
Abstract:Superintelligence is a potential type of future artificial intelligence (AI) that is significantly more intelligent than humans in all major respects. If built, superintelligence could be a transformative event, with potential consequences that are massively beneficial or catastrophic. Meanwhile, the prospect of superintelligence is the subject of major ongoing debate, which includes a significant amount of misinformation. Superintelligence misinformation is potentially dangerous, ultimately leading bad decisions by the would-be developers of superintelligence and those who influence them. This paper surveys strategies to counter superintelligence misinformation. Two types of strategies are examined: strategies to prevent the spread of superintelligence misinformation and strategies to correct it after it has spread. In general, misinformation can be difficult to correct, suggesting a high value of strategies to prevent it. This paper is the first extended study of superintelligence misinformation. It draws heavily on the study of misinformation in psychology, political science, and related fields, especially misinformation about global warming. The strategies proposed can be applied to lay public attention to superintelligence, AI education programs, and efforts to build expert consensus.Keywords: artificial intelligence; superintelligence; misinformation 2b1af7f3a8